The Pittsburgh Penguins are slated to enter the 2023-24 season with the oldest squad in the league, but it will be a highly motivated group eager to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason party for the first time since 2005-06. Interestingly enough, the Penguins will also enter the season with the league’s youngest general manager, and President of Hockey Operations for that matter, with Kyle Dubas new to the franchise after departing the Toronto Maple Leafs. I find this duality interesting, and in a sense it is a situation where age simply could just be a number. In any case, there’s a sense of optimism in Pittsburgh and we should quickly find out whether or not that emotion is justified. With that said, let’s get ready for the season set to get underway a month from now.
The Long and Winding Road (How Season Ended)
A 17th consecutive playoff appearance was within reach for the Penguins, but the dream was dashed after the New York Islanders defeated the Montreal Canadiens following Pittsburgh’s inability to defeat the lowly Chicago Blackhawks in the penultimate game of the season. Pittsburgh would drop the season finale, 3-2 in overtime to the Columbus Blue Jackets two days later.
Following the conclusion of the season, there was quite a bit of speculation on what would happen next. The first big move was the dismissal of Ron Hextall and Brian Burke, and it was something that was well received by the fanbase. After that, there was a brief period in which there were rumors that Mike Sullivan would be let go, but it ultimately was fantasy casting fueled by rumors that were peddled by outside media. The belief was that the next executive hired would want a clean slate to bring in their own coach, but that wasn’t the case. Kyle Dubas was very complimentary of Sullivan, and went as far to say that he was paramount, along with Sidney Crosby, in deciding to come to Pittsburgh
Hello, Goodbye (Roster Changes)
The projected opening night roster looks a lot different than the one that ended the season, and there are many interesting names which could add a lot of value to the team. Before we dive into specifics, here’s a quick list of who is no longer around, and who is new to the squad.
Out: Jason Zucker (F), Brian Dumoulin (D), Jeff Petry (D), Mikael Granlund (F), Jan Ruuta (D), Casey DeSmith (G), Nick Bonino (F), Ryan Poehling (F), Danton Heinen (F), Josh Archibald (F), Dmitry Kulikov (D)
In: Erik Karlsson (D), Reilly Smith (F), Ryan Graves (D), Lars Eller (F), Alex Nedeljkovic (G), Matt Nieto (F), Will Butcher (D), Noel Acciari (F), Vinnie Hinostroza (F), Andreas Johnsson (F), Rem Pitlick (F), Radim Zohorna (F)
Expectations
In my mind it should go without saying that the expectation is that the Penguins’ best players will perform how they should. Sidney Crosby, when healthy, will be an above point per game player that’s a brilliant playmaker and dynamic goal scorer. He appeared in all 82 games last season, finished with 93 points and a GAR of 15.8, and still has loads to give at 36.
Evgeni Malkin is coming off a season in which he played in all 82 games for the first time since the 2008-09 season. In terms of raw points, his 83 last season were his highest overall total since the 2017-18 season in which he ended with 98 points. Last offseason it looked like Malkin could be leaving town, but he came to terms on a new deal, and it is one that made sense given the mode the franchise is in.
Rickard Rakell had a strong first full season in Pittsburgh, and his 60 points in 82 games were his most since he tallied 69 in 2017-18. He turned 29 in May, and there’s every reason to believe he can have a productive second act of his career with the Penguins. He was worth 10 goals above replacement according to Evolving Hockey, and was the team’s third most valuable player by that metric.
Then there’s Kris Letang who finished with 41 points in 64 games, a drop from the 68 in 78 he had the year prior, but it is completely understandable given what he went through after having the second stroke of his career. He will play a secondary role this year now that Karlsson’s a Penguin, and that is something that should benefit him, and also help the overall depth of the team.
Other names of note that I think are interesting include Bryan Rust and Marcus Pettersson. Rust signed a massive 6 year, $30,750,000 deal ($5.125M AAV) and regressed year over year. In terms of points he dropped from 58 in 60 games in 2021-22 to 46 in 81 in 2022-23. By GAR, he went from 4.6 to 2.4, and he enters this season having turned 31 in May. It is possible that the one-year drop off was a fluke fueled by the expectations of a big contract during a season in which things were tough for the Penguins. There’s also the possibility that he’s peaked as a player, and everything he does going forward is a diminishing return relative to his previous performance.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, as one thing that stands out is Rust’s shooting percentage of 9.5 which was in single digits for the first time since 2015-16. Not including this past season, over the past 369 games (2016 to 2022) Rust scored 119 goals on 859 shots which is a shooting percentage of 13.9. He’s shown the ability to maintain a double-digit shooting percentage while taking around 140 shots a year, and interestingly he ended this past season with 211 shots which was the most he’d ever taken in a single season. It is possible that during a down year he opted for shot quantity over quality, and I am interested to see what happens this season. A positive regression would be huge for the Penguins, and I think there’s potential for Rust.
As for Pettersson, I don’t think he gets enough credit for how solid a defender he is. While offense is a big part of his game, he rates out pretty decent in defense, while also being a big contributor on the PK. Here’s a look at his last season via Evolving-Hockey.
He was the Penguins’ fifth most valuable skater by GAR, and second best defender by DEF GAR. The top defender in that regard was Jan Rutta who is no longer with the team. While there’s no guarantee on what will happen, I think Pettersson should be the first one to get a chance with Karlsson when you consider the reigning Norris Trophy winner’s defensive woes. That would leave newcomer Ryan Graves to play with Kris Letang on a pair.
Speaking of Karlsson, while he is undoubtedly the biggest addition to this squad, the second biggest is arguably Reilly Smith, whose addition will potentially play a bigger role to start the season. So before we talk about Karlsson, let’s look at Smith.
Pittsburgh will be without Jake Guentzel to start the season after undergoing ankle surgery, and he will be re-evaluated around the end of October with the official time frame being 12 weeks. That means that if all goes well, Guentzel could rejoin the team at some point in November. The team has 9 games in October, and 13 in November. If Guentzel were ready by the end of the month he’d miss about 16 games which can be mitigated by having Smith on the top line.
Smith is fresh off a Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights, and he was a valuable contributor to the team. In 78 regular season games he posted a line of 26 goals and 30 assists for 56 points while skating 16:58 a game. Per Evolving-Hockey, Smith was worth 7.9 Goals Above Replacement which would have made him the fifth most valuable player on the Penguins had he been on the roster last year. In the playoffs he added 4 goals and 10 assists averaging 16:46 a game in a supporting role, and he’s someone who can play a Chris Kunitz like role in the interim until Guentzel is healthy.
Now to Karlsson who is quite an offensive defenseman. Karlsson had the first 100-point campaign by a defender since Brian Leetch, and it was this impressive output which put him over the top to win the Norris Trophy. With that said, Karlsson’s been a wreck on the defensive side of the puck.
While you can point and look at the state of the San Jose Sharks as a reason why, it is something to keep an eye on to start the season. We know that he’s going to pick up assists and be productive on the power play, but what about 5v5 where the majority of the game is played?
If you look at the last four seasons, Karlsson has a history of being passable defensively, and then horrible the next. Looking at defensive GAR, he sported a -5.5 rating this year. The year prior he posted a -0.6, the year before that, a -6.5, and a -0.9 the year before that. Maybe that means he’s due to have a better showing this season, and maybe the team will be able to live with it given his other gifts. As I said a little earlier, I’d be interested in pairing him with Pettersson, and seeing if having someone steady like him can keep Karlsson in check. Time will certainly tell.
Stats via Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted. Financial data via Cap Friendly.